Rising tensions in the Middle East, coupled with the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could push oil prices as high as $300 per barrel, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein cautioned during a phone call with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul.
The conflict escalated on Friday morning when Israeli jets struck military and nuclear sites in Iran, setting off a continuing cycle of attacks between the two nations.
Hussein warned that if military operations intensify, oil prices might jump to the $200–$300 range per barrel, which would further fuel inflation in European countries and complicate oil exports for producers like Iraq.
The potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping lane responsible for roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply—could remove nearly five million barrels per day from Gulf and Iraqi exports on the global market, the minister explained.
Iranian MP and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Esmail Kousari confirmed on Saturday that Tehran is seriously considering blocking the strait.
Financial analysts have underlined the serious implications of such a blockade. JPMorgan experts estimate that oil prices could reach $130 per barrel under a severe disruption scenario, while some forecasts predict prices could soar as high as $300 per barrel with a complete closure.
Brent crude surged 7% on Friday, reaching $74.23 per barrel following the initial attacks. Although Israel has yet to target Iran’s main oil export facilities, experts caution that further strikes could severely disrupt supply chains. Meanwhile, Iran might respond by obstructing oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
In Russia, Aleksey Pushkov, head of the Federation Council’s information policy commission, also noted that the conflict could trigger a significant oil price spike if Tehran proceeds with blocking the Persian Gulf.
